Economist Dr Lawrence Yun: the US Vacation Home Market

Part 1 of 4

I just returned from the National Association of Realtor’s (NAR) Resort and Second Home Symposium, held this year at Incline Village, Lake Tahoe, Nevada. As a certified Resort and Second Home Property Specialist (RSPS), the Resort Symposium is an opportunity to meet with other brokers who specialize in resort and vacation home properties. We gather to share ideas and solutions, and to hear the latest from industry experts. The headline speaker June 13 was Dr Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. For the purpose of this discussion, vacation homes and second homes are defined as distinct from investment properties. The later are not intended for use by the owner, and are purchased specifically for return on investment rather than for enjoyment by the owner.

Dr Yun summarized his interpretation of current US second home ownership trends. First, he argued that we have reasons to be optimistic. Claiming the future outlook is bright, he then asked when will the future arrive? We are still in the middle of the the collapse, he said, but according to various data sources, the second home market appears to be holding steady at the apparent bottom of the cycle. Noting that real estate is very local when it comes to second and vacation homes, prices appear to have fallen so low an increase in unit sales is underway in many resort markets.

That certainly appears to be the case in Hawaii Island’s South Kohala resort district. January through May 2010, 70 condo units closed with a median sales price of $400,500. That’s quite a jump from the 33 unit sales during the same time period in 2009, and the $410,000 median price wasn’t much different. In North Kona, which is Kona town, 62 condo units sold in early 2009 with a median sales price of $322,250. For the same time period in 2010, unit sales in Kona totaled 126 with a median price of $262,500.

If Yun is correct, the second half of 2010 should see a continued increase in unit sales, with price declines waning.

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