While on a recent visit to Honolulu, I was happy to come across the Waikiki dragon canoe! The canoe is used during Chinese New Year celebrations. Chinese New Year is a major holiday for Chinese families. It’s all about bringing good luck. Big family gatherings, festive decorations, gift giving, and sharing symbolic foods ensure good luck in the new year. The start of Chinese New Year is dictated by the lunar calendar. It is a different day each year, usually falling between late January and February. In 2012 the new year began January 23rd. In Hawaii, Chinese New Year events run through most of January and February.

2012 is the year of the dragon, and it is considered the luckiest of Chinese Zodiac years. Many couples will make an extra effort to give birth before February 9, 2013, when year of the snake begins. Those with dragon birthdays are thought to enjoy a better chance of being the strongest, smartest, and luckiest according to experts. A lucky zodiac means more hope for the baby’s success. Being aligned with the Chinese zodiac is a cultural priority. The year of the dragon is supposed to be particularly fortunate for newborns, wedding days and commerce.

Some of the many Chinese New Year traditions and symbols that bring good luck include:

• Cleaning house and new clothes. Cleaning removes any back luck and allows the house to accept good luck. Wearing red is popular as the color is associated with warding off bad spirits.
• Decorating the house. The word fu is used on decorations. It means luck and happiness. Fresh flowers symbolize spring and a new beginning.
• Eating with your family. Eight or nine dishes are served because they are lucky numbers. The Cantonese words eight and prosperity rhyme. The word for nine means long lasting.
• Giving good luck gifts. Children and unmarried young adults receive little red envelopes with money which symbolizes wealth and prosperity.
• Making lanterns. They symbolize the brightness of spring, hanging on walls or on poles to be carried in lantern parades.
• Honoring the animal. Every year is associated with one of the 12 Chinese zodiac animals. Find the dragon on decorations, and in Hawaii, elaborately carved canoes.

Be present to absorb all this good luck energy! Attend a Chinese New Year Parade in your area. There can be floats, fireworks, performances, marching bands, and there’s always a dramatic dragon or lion dance. Dancers are under an impressively decorated, long and silky dragon or lion costume. The dragon or lion visits homes and businesses to scare away bad luck. Those visited “feed” red envelopes to the  animal to promote good luck.

Most weekday mornings I can be found at my desk in the beautiful Mauna Kea Resort working away.  When hotel guests stop by to say hello and talk real estate, they are typically surprised to find two bedroom condos, some on the fairway, all with ocean views, well under $1M.  Today the asking prices for those Kumulani condos start at $550,000.  Located within Mauna Kea Resort, Kumulani is an amazing value for tennis, golf and beach buffs.

Another neighborhood with ocean views available at respectable prices is Sunset Ridge in Waikoloa Village. Being outside the resort and further away from the beach is the downside, but the upside is recently built, single family, three bedroom homes with ocean views, and homeowner association dues of just $500 per year.  Today these homes are priced at $425-650K.

Waikoloa Village is not to be confused with Waikoloa Beach Resort.  The resort is located about ten minutes down the hill from the Village entrance.  Waikoloa Beach Resort has a wide selection of lovely condominiums, but no single family homes.  Today the Waikoloa Beach Resort condos are priced $275K to $2.75M.

Included in the annual Waikoloa Village homeowner association dues are discounted green fees on the neighborhood golf course, use of tennis courts, and swimming pool.  At the association website read the Village newsletter and official association documents; learn about the Golf Club, the long list of Village social and charitable organizations, and the businesses that serve the Village.

Yes, some Sunset Ridge homes were built in the 1990s, and their asking prices are lower.  If an ocean view is what you are looking for, be sure to first consider the homes built in 2007 and 2011.  “Contact me” and ask for a specific list of the newer built Sunset Ridge homes.

January through October 2011 Kohala Coast condo sales are up 36.6% and prices are down 7.7% over January through October 2010.

Third quarter 2011 Kohala Coast condo sales are up 25.5% and prices are down 9.1% over third quarter 2010.*

October 2011 Kohala Coast condo  sales are down 36.4% and prices are down 29.8% over October 2010.

January through October 2011 Kona condo sales are up 9.4% and prices are down 21.8% over January through October 2010.

Third quarter 2011 Kona condo sales are up 5.5% and prices are down 9.1% over third quarter 2010.*

October 2011 Kona condo  sales are up 11.8% and prices are down 8.5% over January through October 2010.

Of the six groups above, only one deviates from the continuing trend of sales up and prices down: October 2011 Kohala Coast unit sales.  I would disregard that oddity until fourth quarter numbers are in.

For recent West Hawaii economic forecast information, see West Hawaii Today reporter Erin Miller’s summary of local economist Paul Brewbaker’s October 28 talk.

*(Third quarter numbers for both Kona and Kohala Coast condos were stated incorrectly in the mailing sent 11/21/11.  The numbers here are correct.)

So I expanded my research to include all West Hawaii single family and condo sales from South Kona to North Kohala, January through September 2011 vs 2010. Again, my research still found sales for improved residential higher this year than last: 999 to 859. The 2011 January-September median sales price was $323,000 compared to $344,000 last year.

Next I compared just the month of September 2011 vs 2010. Sales for improved residential were about the same this year and last for September: 95 to 94. The median sales price for West Hawaii homes during this period was also about the same: $338,000 in 2011 vs $335,000 in 2010.

Last, I compared the third quarter 2011 vs 2010. Sales for improved residential were higher this year for the third quarter: 317 to 274. The median sales price for West Hawaii homes during this period was lower: $325,000 in 2011 vs $335,000 in 2010.

Today’s West Hawaii Today headline “Home Sales Dip” was wrong. Yes prices are still slipping but buyers are clearly taking this opportunity to buy low. Unit sales are up.

Not only the wealthy are actively buying West Hawaii real estate

What got me digging into these records were recent news reports that Mercedes Benz unit sales in the United States recently broke a record; an Italian handbag retailer experienced difficulty keeping its $1,000+ handbags on the shelves; and the top two luxury purchase types by wealthy consumers were either a $1,000+ case of wine or piece of jewelry.

In the Luxury Institute survey cited, the sample demographic was 50% male and 50 % female with a median age of 52, a $233,000 median income, and a $1.5M net worth.  The large majority was married and more than half were empty nesters.  Almost all possessed at least a Bachelor’s degree and were born in the US.  More than half were employed full time and over 20% were self-employed or the company owner.

What was the value of the most recent real property purchase by these wealthy consumers?  About 66% paid less than $500,000, while the mean price paid was $984,000.  To recap, one quarter of the top 9% of Americans are buying real estate, and a significant number of those properties are second homes.

Regardless of price band, how are West Hawaii single family and condo sales doing?  As you can see from the charts below, West Hawaii 2011 median sales prices are well below $500,000.  The category with the least amount of price slippage is South Kohala single family homes.  This area has Waikoloa Village and wet side Waimea, both affordable areas for local families.  Significantly more families bought in 2011 vs 2010.

The category with the second least amount of sales price slippage is South Kohala condos.  This is second home territory.  South Kohala 2011 condo unit sales are significantly up, even more so than single family homes.  Vacationers are not missing this opportunity to buy low.

January through September 2011 vs 2010

There were several good Big Island speakers and I was fortunate to record one of the best, Keck Observatory Director Dr Taft Armandroff.  I divided Dr Armandroff’s talk into three video sections.

1. Points of interest for telescope visitors: the mirrors, the facility’s size, and the ancient light source

2. About the Keck organization: parent institutions

3. What the Keck scientists are studying; exciting recent findings about dark matter

On to the summit! (To be continued)

Today I visited the summit of Mauna Kea courtesy of the Keck Observatory.  It was the 2011 Keck Open House and I was fortunate enough to be invited by friend and Keck astronomer Julien Woillez. Julien is an interferometer scientist working on a project coordinating both Keck I and Keck II telescopes to create a virtual 85 millimeter telescope. Wow!

We met the scientists and staff at the Keck Observatory headquarters in Kamuela (Waimea, Big Island) at 8:00 AM. By 8:45 we arrived at the Keck Observatory campus at the 9,000 foot level of Mauna Kea. The day was bright with a warm and gentle breeze. Slightly light-headed from the elevation, we entered the private Keck Observatory common area building. The reception lobby was warm with high country architectural details, and brightened overhead by the national flags of participating astronomer nations. We were immediately drawn down into the neighboring cafeteria with it’s clusters of easy conversationalists, coffee and tea aromas, and beautiful views.

Up and to the left from the cafe, I found pool tables and dart boards in the recreation area, and next to that overstuffed chairs in the living room which was lined with books. A closer look at the titles made me chuckle: science fiction and fantasy pulp fiction and other light reading. Serious thoughts of dark matter, data crunching and expanding universe queries must give way!

Two young astronomy interns lay inert on the inviting soft sofas, sound asleep, shirts and khakis slightly soiled and scruffed. Exhausted from a long night shift, no doubt they sank into the deep cushions for an after work chat. In the warming morning light, with pleasant breakfast chatter and scents drifting in from the cafeteria, they never had a chance. Lights out.

The views drew me out onto the living room lanai. Grand Mauna Loa was beautiful in the clear morning light. Far below a broad tongue of clouds reached in from the east, covering the tropical Hamakua and North Hilo coastline. I heard the master of ceremonies pick up the mic in the cafe and clear his throat. Time to find a seat for the safety briefing. (To be continued)  Video:

In 2010 the South Kohala real estate market sputtered back to life in fits and starts.  While unit sales for all real estate rose and fell each quarter, condominium unit sales have been steadily increasing the last three quarters.  Yes, Kohala Coast condo sales prices continue to slip, but just barely.  Sooner or later the upward trending unit sales will put a stop to that.  I predict, and I think Mr Yun would agree, prices will stop slipping before the end of the year.  Why?

* More jobs
* Rising stock market wealth
* Rising apartment rents
* A large selection of affordable homes
* Justifiable home values
* Investors looking to hedge against potential inflation
* Foreigners buying cheap property

The Big Island agrees with everything on Mr Yun’s list, except more jobs.  The stock market has returned to values higher than before the fall.  Rents are climbing because there just isn’t much of a selection anymore.  Real estate prices have been decreasing for quite some time, and the appraisers are easily justifying sales prices.  Investors in the form of second home buyers are definitely back, and Canadians are snapping deals up left and right.  As you might have guessed, the Chinese are coming, but they’ll hit Oahu, not the Big Island.

So what are you waiting for?  Interest rates to go up?  If you would like a vacation home on the Big Island, start looking now.  Ask about my automated new listing email service.  Properties you would like to learn about will hit your inbox the day they hit the market.  It’s a complimentary service.  Just ask!

1. $640,000; 2/2; Kumulani condo #B3; located on golf course with ocean view
2. $909,500; 3/2; Wai’ula’ula condo #M202; located on golf course with ocean and Maui views
3. $1,300,000; 3/3; Moani Heights residence #8; located on golf course with ocean and Maui view
4. $1,525,000; 3/3; Moani Height residence #9; located on golf course with ocean and Maui view
5. $2,600,000; 4/3.5; Kauna’oa condo #1A; ocean view
6. $2,400,000; Kauna’oa lot #6; located on golf course with ocean view
7. $1,500,000; Mauna Kea Fairways North lot #12; located on golf course with ocean view
8. $2,000,000; Mauna Kea Fairways South residence #3; structure is either a tear down or will be a demolition remodel with an outstanding ocean view
9. $1,350,000; 2/2.5; The Villas at Mauna Kea condo #37; original 1987 condition with ocean view

Long time resort visitors are recognizing the attractive current property values within the resort. If you do not need an ocean view, the deals can be even better at the Mauna Lani and Waikoloa Beach Resorts.

The Kumulani at Mauna Kea #E2 is still available as of this writing for $685,000.  Yes, it has a very nice ocean view!  Take a look: