The question I am asked most often “is this the bottom of the real estate market?” I reply we can only look at the past to try to answer that question. It also helps to pay attention to what economists are saying and what the hopes and fears are about the stock market. In our South Kohala luxury real estate market here on Hawaii Island, the stock market is a big factor in the decision making process as that is where most of the cash comes from.
The financial crash was in 2008. Here on Hawaii Island the real estate market was born anew in 2009. I gathered the quarterly sales data back to January 2009 and charted the progress of unit sales and average sale prices through December 2011.
The “average sale price” line says the South Kohala condo real estate market has stabilized, and the future looks promising. Notice the 2011 falling “unit sales” bars. That corresponds with my observation that inventory is shrinking. Assuming no more dramatic events in the domestic and global economies, I would like to hope that we are indeed at the bottom of the market here in South Kohala, Hawaii Island. Only time will tell.